Global Verification Team meeting **************01/19/2022 ----notes---*************************************** Progress: (1) The comparison between Met-TC track/intensity verification {EMC_verif-global(v2.6.2)} and NHC package (nhc-verification.v4.11.0) was conducted to convince ourselves. (2) The 2021 Atlantic, East/West Pacific TC track/intensity verificatiuon was finished with Met-TC package and the new python plotting script. The models include: GFS/GEFS, ECMWF/CMC/UKMET deterministic/ensembles https://ftp.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/jpeng/TC_verification_2021/TO_Alicia/ (plot colors need to be modified) (3) The 2021 TC genesis verification with Met-TCgen was done for GFS, ECMWF and CMC deterministic forecasts. /mnt/lfs4/HFIP/hwrfv3/Jiayi.Peng/TCgen_gfs/outgfs_AL TOTAL FY_OY FY_ON FN_OY FN_ON 2291 108 1982 201 0 ----GENESIS_DEV 2291 133 1957 201 0 ----GENESIS_OPS hit false-alarm miss /mnt/lfs4/HFIP/hwrfv3/Jiayi.Peng/TCgen_gfs/outcmc_AL TOTAL FY_OY FY_ON FN_OY FN_ON 1143 49 927 167 0 ----GENESIS_DEV 1143 65 911 167 0----GENESIS_OPS hit false-alarm miss /mnt/lfs4/HFIP/hwrfv3/Jiayi.Peng/TCgen_gfs/outecmwf_AL TOTAL FY_OY FY_ON FN_OY FN_ON 1222 55 1008 159 0----GENESIS_DEV 1222 67 996 159 0----GENESIS_OPS hit false-alarm miss Issues: (1) UKMET deterministic/ensemble TC track data is not in operational (collected from Helen through email). TC genesis data is missing. Need to find a way to solve this? (2) Met-TCgen can not verify ensemble TC genesis probability forecasts. Need to send a request for development ? (3) Met-TC can not verify the relationship of ensemble mean track/intensity error and spread. The error/spread case number needs to be matched. -----reference --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2021/12/09-------- Contacted DTC Met-TC Team and Halperin, Daniel J.(HALPEA17@erau.edu) regarding global ensemble TC genesis verification tool in Met-TC. https://github.com/dtcenter/METplus/discussions/1304 Does the Met/MetPlus have the capability to verify GEFS (global ensemble) TC genesis ? 2022/01/07: Contacted DTC Met_TC Team for the ensemble track spread calculation: https://github.com/dtcenter/METplus/discussions/1341 Does the MET-TC have the capability to verify GEFS ensemble mean TC track error and spread? The case numbers for track error calculation need to be matched with the case numbers for track spread calculation. 2022/01/06---- Surveyed the operational adeck data for GFS/GEFS, CMC/CENS, ECMWF/eens and UKX/UKens. Mars: /gpfs/dell2/emc/modeling/noscrub/Jiayi.Peng/EMC_verif-global/parm/config Atlantic/East Pacific: config.vrfy.tc_AL2021_ALLNAMED_global_UKMD and config.vrfy.tc_AL2021_ALLNAMED_global_UKMN export tropcyc_model_plot_name_list="GFS ECMWF CMC UKMET" export tropcyc_model_atcf_name_list="AVNO ECMO CMC UKMD" ----UKMD is missing export tropcyc_model_plot_name_list="GFSens ECMWFens CMCens UKMETens" export tropcyc_model_atcf_name_list="AEMN EEMN CEMN UKMN" ---- UKMN is missing West Pacific: config.vrfy.tc_WP2021_ALLNAMED_global_UKMD and export tropcyc_model_plot_name_list="GFS ECMWF CMC UKMET" export tropcyc_model_atcf_name_list="AVNO EMX CMC UKMD" ----UKMD is missing EMX /CMC (inserted) export tropcyc_model_plot_name_list="GFSens ECMWFens CMCens UKMETens" export tropcyc_model_atcf_name_list="AEMN EEMN CEMN UKMN" ---- UKMN is missing EEMN (inserted) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- export tropcyc_stat_list="AMAX_WIND-BMAX_WIND ABS(AMAX_WIND-BMAX_WIND) ALTK_ERR CRTK_ERR ABS(TK_ERR)" export tropcyc_valid_storm_level_list="TD TS TY TC HU SD SS" ****************************************************** Frequency bias = Hit+False alarm /(Hit+Miss) Hit rate(POD) = Hit/(Hit+Miss) Miss rate = Miss/(Hit+Miss) False alarm rate = False alarm /(False alarm+Correct reject) False alarm ratio = False alarm /(Hit +False alarm) Critical success index = Hit /(Hit+Miss+False alarm) Success ratio = 1- False alarm ratio ****************************************************** **************02/15/2022 ----notes---*************************************** Issues: (1) UKMET deterministic/ensemble TC track data is not in operational (collected from Helen through email). TC genesis data is missing. Need to find a way to solve this? (2) Met-TCgen can not verify ensemble TC genesis probability forecasts. Need to send a request for development ? (3) Met-TC can not verify the relationship of ensemble mean track/intensity error and spread. The error/spread case number needs to be matched. Progress: To address Issue (2) and (3): Prepared and presented a PPT file for the Met-TC discussion meeting on Feb. 02, 2022. It is focused on ensemble TC genesis verification and track/intensity's error/spread verifications. DTC will develop these capabilities, may be included in a new version of Met-TC. Daniel J.(HALPEA17@erau.edu) For Issue (1): I suggest to drop the UKMET deterministic/ensemble TC track/genesis verifications until we get the data through NCO data flow Team. Delivered ens_tracker.v1.3.1 to NCO(WCOSS2) to meet NHC’s new request. Finished the python scripts for plotting GFS TC track with the basins (Atlantic, East/West Pacific, North/South indian ocean, and south Pacific ocean). Finished the python scripts for plotting GEFS TC tracks and its probability (Atlantic, East/West Pacific, North/South indian ocean, and south Pacific ocean). Finished the TC track and intensity verifications for GEFS-couple P7 runs. Worked on a python script to plot TC maximum wind speed and minimum SLP. Attended weekly Met/Metplus training session. https://www.ncl.ucar.edu/Applications/NCL_to_Python/ **************************************** ----03/15/2022 ----notes----------------------------------------- Finished setting Guangping's cron jobs on Venus for his extratropical cyclone webpage maintainance. Calculated TC tracks for Wei and Jongil's GFS-v17 (P8B) runs. Verifications including Pmin, Vmax and track(Florence and Michael in 2018; Dorian and Lorenzo in 2019) for GFS-v17(P8B) runs. Wrote sub_wcoss2 for real-time jobs on Dogwood. Worked with Lin.Gan for GFS-work flow with ens_tracker.v1.1.15.5. worked on Guangping's cyclone tracker code on Dogwood Joined TCORF/IHC conference on March 09-10, 2022. From this meeting-------------------------------------------------- Setting up cronjobs on WCOSS2 You can name your crontab anything and save it anywhere safe (not ptmp/stmp)! /lfs/h2/emc/vpppg/noscrub/Alicia.Bentley/cronjobs/crontab.tmp Example of a cronjob that you might include in crontab.tmp (syntax is important): 30 15 * * * bash -l -c /lfs/h2/emc/vpppg/noscrub/Alicia.Bentley/gefsv12/drive_gefs 00 1> /lfs/h2/emc/ptmp/Alicia.Bentley/log/gefsv12.out00 2>&1 Once you have your crontab set up, execute the following: crontab path_to_file crontab /lfs/h2/emc/vpppg/noscrub/Alicia.Bentley/cronjobs/crontab.tmp Setting up passwordless transfer from WCOSS2 to emcrzdm: Copy contents of /u/sshKeys/$USER/id_rsa.pub on WCOSS2 Paste those contents into ~/.ssh/authorized_keys on emcrzdm How to load MET-10.0.1/METplus-4.0.0 (NOT default ver.) on WCOSS2: module purge export HPC_OPT=/apps/ops/para/libs module use /apps/ops/para/libs/modulefiles/compiler/intel/19.1.3.304/ module load intel module load gsl module load python/3.8.6 module load netcdf/4.7.4 module load met/10.0.1 module load metplus/4.0.0 MET-9.1.3/METplus-3.1.1 (WCOSS1 prod) have been installed on WCOSS2 How to load MET-9.1.3/METplus-3.1.1 (default versions) on WCOSS2: module purge export HPC_OPT=/apps/ops/para/libs module use /apps/ops/para/libs/modulefiles/compiler/intel/19.1.3.304/ module load intel module load met module load metplus ----04/12/2022 ----notes----------------------------------------- Worked on the realtime jobs' transition to Cactus for the global TC website maintainance. Finished the PPT file for JTWC/INDOPACOM conference. Calculated GEFS/ECMWF ensemble 2021 track error/spread statistics. Verified Jongil's GFS-v17 round 7-11 plots for Florence (AL06-2018) (Vmax, Pmin and track). Plotting storm tracks for GEFS-v12 Reforecast, GEFS-EP1/EP2 (9 storms, 2017-2019). Calculated GEFS-couple (EP2) track error/spread. Created a TAG for TC_tracker.v1.1.15.5. Worked on storms' name change for 2022 season. ------------------------------------------------------------------